(German – literally ‘Spirit of the Times.’)
Demoralized Americans give democracy low odds of surviving election in poll
Only one in five U.S. adults believe democracy will withstand the 2024 presidential election, according to AP-NORC poll data.
Why it matters: Prospective voters are demoralized by the outcome regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump wins the historic matchup.
- Another one out of five believe “democracy is already so seriously broken that it doesn’t matter who wins.”
The big picture: President Biden said he’s “not confident at all” that a peaceful transfer of power will take place in November if Trump loses the election.
By the numbers: 59% of U.S. adults overall said the outcome of the election could put democracy at risk.
- 58% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats said the same.
- However, the poll was conducted a week after Biden had dropped out of the race and while Harris was still cementing herself as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Since then, Harris has seen an influx of donations and support that suggest Democrats view the race in a new light.
Between the lines: Independents were most likely to believe that democracy is too far gone.
- Men were more likely than women to believe that democracy will withstand the election, regardless of outcome.
Zoom in: While Democrats are mainly concerned about democracy, Republicans are focused on the election’s impact on immigration and technology.
Methodology: The nationwide poll was conducted July 25-29 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 1,143 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
Reference: https://www.axios.com/2024/08/08/presidential-election-harris-trump-democracy-poll